Steve presented an analysis of how well Al Gore's predictions in the documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth' had held up after 20 years.

Present: Steve Davis, Julien De Jager, Guy Drummond, Chris Guilding, Guy Hamilton, Bruce Makin, Wal Mayr, Russell Reichelt, Jonathan Shaw. David Straton connected remotely by Zoom.

Steve

Claim: CO2 increase causes temperature increase

Correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation

The science says that there is some equilibrium between dissolved CO2 and atmospheric CO2, an equilibrium which depends on the temperature.

The temperature itself can depend on many different factors, including CO2

But just the CO2 -> temperature correlation by itself doesn't tell you the strength of the CO2 to temperature link.

Not incorrect, but could have been better explained

Claim: Within 15 years (2021), glaciers will be gone from Glacier National Park

Claim: Within the decade (by 2016), there will be no more ‘Snows of Kilimanjaro’

Kilimanjaro’s ice fields have shrunk since the early 20th century, but studies suggest local factors (e.g., deforestation reducing humidity) play a larger role than global temperature rise.

The glaciers persist today, albeit diminished

Claim: Future CO2 level prediction

https://www.temperaturerecord.org/

Claim: 10 hottest years occurred in the last 14 years

Claim: If the “ocean conveyor belt” (AMOC) stops Europe will be plunged into an ice age in 10 years

There are conflicting studies and opinions on the impending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

It has collapsed many times in the distant past and appears to be weakening. But there isn’t enough data to point in any particular direction except to say it is unlikely to be as soon as Gore implied.